I'll be glad to be the first to comment.
Lewis Page can take a break we won't need him to figure that one out.
Price, demand, entertainment, storage.
When content I want only comes in bluray I will shop bluray.
When more and more files to burn have to span dvd discs I will consider the switchover.
When more of our existing DVDs become unreadable: bluray time.
When I see bluray burners at around 100$ and media around a dollar a pop, hip hip bluray! (had to slip that one in).
However I wonder whether blueray and hddvd might be merely transitory standards especially given that the amount of extra storage they offer is relatively minimal IMHO, and that has struck me from day one. It feels to me like there is a chance that something else will come along and FUBAR those technologies right in the nuts.
I think SD memory is doing great at the moment, albeit a couple years late; 32 GB postage stamp sized rewritable, multipurpose storage at less than 20$ US for those who buy their gear elsewhere than at Futureshop. I carry around two 4GB SD cards along with an SD card reader and in between my home DVD player, my 4 computers, my camera and PDA I don't need any other short term, even mid term storage as it is; and I use SD extensively at our help desk too.
IT analysts argue that downloads are the future. I think my 15 year old keeps redownloading the same damn music video 50 gazillion times on youtube and that's because I'm not charging her for the bandwidth (yet). The bigger the download and the more items downloaded, the more incentive one has to keep and store their content.
The NET is still plagued by a reliability problem. Flaky IP Telephony comes to mind, chuggy hulu clips and that email I just sent you a minute ago.... Did you get it yet? It usually only takes about a minute or two. How about now? Can you hear me now? How about now?
We would like to download everything right now but we are not there yet and we are still going to need cheap storage - lots of it and way more than bluray currently offers - for the next foreseeable future.
In the meantime Bluray is looking more and more like the Vista of media formats.