A Certain Path to Epic Fail

There is no way that you can sell subsidised hardware running linux unless you find a way to lock the hardware down so hard that the OS cannot be fiddled with or changed at all.

The problem then is that you can't update the device to patch it for errors or new functionality.

Give the average Linux hacker the slightest hole to poke through and suddenly you'll find that your subsidised devices are flying out the door based on their subsidised cheapness and uber hackworthiness and will never actually be used on the service that is providing the subsidy.

You gotta wunder

when the only positive selling point of a linux based netbook is that it is cheaper than a Windows XP version of the same kit.

How many of those linux based ones will be returned to vendors as "ooo 'eck!" type purchases?

eePc

didnt asus do this already?

everyone just installed xp on 'em and where on their merry way..

Might work...

...but I doubt it.

Linux will not dominate in the netbooks because people are stupid and/or lazy. The fact that most netbooks now ship with XP proves that. I don't see how anyone *needs* XP on a netbook -- none of the excuses about not being able to run Photoshop or CAD or games or whatever apply here; for what netbooks are (or originally were?) supposed to do, anything works. Might be my lack of imagination. But people want XP anyway, so they are getting it. And will keep getting it, and the Linux netbooks will become as common as the models Dell sells with Ubuntu, for instance (every time I look there one less, or less options to customize). That's how it works, unfortunately.

Not that I care much, but why not waste some time here?

Netbooks

Are sold too much on "cheap".

Only Apple's Air is really doing it right. Attractive hardware with differentiating software, though it is too expensive, presumably to prevent it from cannibalising Apple's notebook sales. It is also the opposite of the OSS model and the majority of netbooks. They're all homogeneous cheap junky stuff.

If I were a hardware manufacturer, I'd invest in (1) differentiated hardware and (2) linux-based proprietary software with a plug-in framework which allows OSS people to add their apps.

I'd sell it to ISPs to pair with their contract-provided ADSL routers so it could be subsidised. It has to be different enough that people don't think of it as a PC. Otherwise they'll be disappointed and try to install XP on it. They'll probably be disappointed with that too, but then there will be no-where else to go.

It needs webcam, good mic/speakers, email, skype/voip, facebook and ebay and good mobile telephone sync'ing (bluetooth) and also a high-power infra-red port so it can be a remote control. SMS via your mobile or built-in 3g/2g mobile phone or wifi to ISP system should be available. You need to be able to sync a calendar and addressbooks with other PCs but maintain a local cache if they are not available. Oh yes and it needs a non-pop3 mail service so it doesn't swipe your emails off the server. IMAP or something else (webmail?) please.

I guess the main problem is that if you've done all this, the cost of changing the hardware to notebook spec is negligible.

Lemmings all...

Put a Windows theme on an X windows manager and they won't know the difference. There is a person I deal with now who simply MUST have Outlook on his PC... no good reason, he's just used to how it looks. If I put Evolution in front of him he's happy because it looks like Outlook.

What's even weirder are the people who whine and complain that Open Office is "too different" from MS Office 2003, "It doesn't look the same!" is the common complaint, then they install MS Office 2007. Do they complain that it is different? Noooooo. Stupid people.

@J

"Linux will not dominate in the netbooks because people are stupid and/or lazy"

Possibly, or because MS has woken up and allowed XP to be licenced.

My wife has an Acer netbook that shipped with XP. She was delighted as she hates Vista with a vengance after seeing it slow down another laptop and forcing her to do things differently. She doesn't give a damn about Linux.

She didn't *need* XP, arguably she didn't *need* a netbook, but it was she *wanted*.

She only uses it for some office documents, web surfing, music, and some mild photo editing.

All of this could be done under Linux, but really, why bother.

If it had been me, I'd have gone for a Linux option as I'd have enjoyed playing with a new O/S, but it was her computer.

Why is it stupid or lazy to pick the option that meets the users requirements?

Doesn't this imply lock in?

Something that goes against software freedom principles? This really does have FAIL written all over it.

Aren't the mobile operators doing it already...

...with all the "free netbook with our 3G dongle" deals. The ones where the larger monthly subscription just happens to be the price of the netbook over too years so for now I'd rather buy the netbook outright.

The real problem for Linux is that a lot of Netbook buyers aren't the most computer literate of people. My wife is not a Linux fan and so the Windows 7 beta has made it's way on to our HP 2133 to replace the pre-installed SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop. And those who scoff at the idea of Windows 7 on a Via C-7, it's actually fast enough to do the kind of workload you expect to use a netbook for.

Where's a dead Tux icon when you need one?

The reason for XP

Is that the companies needed to justify raising the the prices and earning soem money on these

things. Sorry but I used the old asus eee with the linux op on it and it was fine, fast responsive, and people had no problem using it.

The only reason I can see for XP being used so much now and companies refusing to install Linux

is because certain people may have had words in peoples ears.

Everyone says they kept getting return for linux netbooks, yet no one has ever released figures on

this , and now it seems to have become accepted fact.

The price of windows XP has seen the price of netbooks rise, once they get nearer laptop prices

you will see it tail off,the sweet pot for me is £200 - £220 max

I mean in the eand we are talking about a machine with a very small screen, what full blown fits

and is useful on a netbook, that had no equiv in linux. Unless there are people with a burning

need to use autocad on a net book, makes no sense, just my two pennies :D

@J

"Linux will not dominate in the netbooks because people are stupid and/or lazy."

Or maybe they use a full blown PC at home and don't want to fuck around trying to work out how the hell to connect the two together /mount /umount, edit this file, alter this line?

Or even simpler, maybe they don't like Linux...I know that is blasphemy to some, but maybe some people just don't like it, scary thing, choice.

Herein lies the problem

"According to Zemlin, companies could soon make their money back during the lifetime of any contract sold along with a netbook."

If we're comparing to the mobile market, the subsidy is to draw you into paying extortionate rates on phone calls or rather, extortionate rates per month on "free" minutes and the like that you're not going to use. So what kind of contracts could possibly be the basis for subsidising netbooks?

A killer application that only runs on Linux? Chances are that someone will produce a rough and ready clone fairly quickly if said app is paid-for, and if it's not paid-for then it isn't going to produce any money with which to do subsidies.

Some kind of service? Pretty much the only one that fits the bill with regards netbooks are ISPs, and they'd have to produce a spectacularly opaque contract that would get torn to shreds by the likes of this site before you can say "Muppet pays extra £50/Gb just to get a dinky computer".

Can't see it happening...

Won't happen until the EU step in

This won't happen because Microsoft will use their muscle to threaten the OEMs with higher prices unless they drop the Linux version or offer the Windows version at a cheaper price. This is already happening and is why several OEMs have already dropped the Linux version, because of pressure from Microsoft.

Until the EU starts investigating Microsoft for their illegal business practices and their abuse of their monopoly position with regards to installs of their crap software then you cannot expect Linux to take a dominant position, or even increase market share.

Strange to see ...

... Dell Mini being advertised in a mass readership daily paper (London Lite, I believe) for £199.00 with Ubuntu installed. This is progress. Seen it advertised online without a mention of Windoze.

Stupid NOT to run Linux...

The restricted energy, size, and price specifications of the netbook platform requires an operating system which is well-designed, efficient, secure, robust, low-cost, and customizable for restricted screen size and mobility. Windows operating systems can at most satisfy one or two of these requirements: constant security problems point to poor design and security, XP is quire efficient when new, but rapidly becomes less so; Vista won't work, Win 7 will be disabled to only run 3 programs (in other words, useless for most people who run antivirus). Another problem with Windows is that running antivirus scanners slows netbooks down (so many people do not install antivirus...). Linux, on the other hand, is free or nearly so, and fulfils all there requirements; it is a natural fit for netbooks.

I considered the security of my identity, data, and banking transactions well worth the 15 minutes it took to familiarize myself with Ubuntu Linux. I think more people will begin to see the benefits of loading a user-friendly Linux (like Ubuntu) on their home systems the next time their Microsoft Windows systems crash or fall victim to another virus/trojan attack.

Won't work

Linux is a dead duck for the desktop, it barely registers 1% penetration. On the server side things are better, but still not great (circa 33%).

Users want an OS that is an appliance. That just works. They do not want to go to a terminal, compile their drivers, join their LUG, learn the TCP/IP protocol, IP tables, have to write custom scripts for simple tasks that really should have a UI (e.g. managing the order of application launch on start-up) or do any of the other bull-crap you need to do with Linux (and before the fanbois bitch can I just say "OH YES YOU BLOODY WELL DO"; even on the great brown hope that is Ubuntu).

The Linux world just does not get it. They expect everyone to have the time (and interest!) to learn about the heart of the OS. Here's a clue people - no one gives a shit.

The average user does not give two damns how it works, they just want it to work. This elitist ("STFU and RTFM, noob"), uber-geek attitude of the Linux world is its downfall. You can see it here "Linux will not dominate in the netbooks because people are stupid and/or lazy." etc. Can all the Lintards calling people stupid/lazy strip their car engine? Why not? Are you too stupid/lazy to do it? People are not stupid/lazy, they just have other priorities in their life, that is all. They view the computer the same way you view your car. A utilitarian device, nothing more.

This is why Linux hardware does not ship (all the experiments have failed). This is why netbooks are returned for the "upgrade" to XP. This is why netbook manufacturers are all dropping Linux as an OS.

If you want to be a geek and learn the guts of an OS, good for you. If you just want to get on with your life, then body swerve the whole Linux arena and stick with an OS that lets you get your job done.

Paris, because she likes plug and play.

Maybe - Maybe not

If you have to resort to gimmics to sell it, it ain't good enough (that goes for MS too)

Mines the one with a 13' Macbook in the one pocket and an iPhone in the other (after many years of them being full of junk)

Outdated business model

Did he seriously just claim that 'selling things for a profit' is an outdated business model.

Sure, there are alternatives, but selling stuff for a profit is the basis of nearly every viable business model, it's not outdated, it's the central paradigm of capitalism.

Hello Mr Clueless...

If this is the extent of Zemlin's thinking on this then he need to go back and do some more. Other than mobile broadband (which is already being done) exactly what services _are_ they going to use to reduce the costs of the hardware? Can't see many folks being impressed with enforced advertising etc.

Nope, if Linux is going to be able to hold off Windows 7 (which is the real threat, not XP) then the Linux netbook 'experience' is going to have to get better. For example where's equivalent to the 'gee, wow!" factor that you get doing zooming/panning etc on an iPod Touch/iPhone on Linplus et al? The easiest win here (as far as I can tell) would be to make a device that booted and shutdown a good deal faster than is currently the case (that said I've not tried a tailored Ubuntu Netbook remix yet). People are naturally impatient, so this surely is a feature that all would appreciate?

Personally, I can't see the netbook fashion lasting that much longer. Mainly because they've stopped being small, light and - above all - cheap devices and are morphing into 'Laptop Jr'. Maybe it's just my jaded perception, but in addition the Linux-based ones seem to have increased in price a heck of a lot more than their Windows-based bretheren. Back when I bought mine I could get a basic model for about US$250, now it's passed US$350 for the equivalent and the price is still going up.

Why look like XP?

One thing that I cant understand is why Asus bundled the distro that they do, its awful and looks so cheap and homemade. There is an alternitave - eeebuntu, much better, looks professional, much more intuitive and has a mac feel to it.

It has more features, and 100 times better. I was ready to install XP on my asus until I found out about it, now, I have no need.

title

@Al: I'm installing Easy Peasy on my new Eepc, as Goat Jam postulates.

Re. beating Microsoft:

Obviously some companies are set to make out money from Linux adoption, but on a higher level I don't see why Linux should be pushed hard into the market place to compete with Microsoft. It doesn't matter whether netbook or navigator makers like TomTom adopt Linux or not.

If regular netbook and PC users are more comfortable with Windows than they are with Linux, fair enough. That is no threat to those of us who like to use Linux. As development continues, there will be more like myself and maybe Linux usage will some day become more mainstream. That may take time, but it doesn't matter. Microsoft is no threat to Linux - you cannot kill OSS. The whole point of OSS software is that its value is in utility. An inferior OSS product deserves to die, but if it's useful it will get adopted and improved. You cannot kill it with market place shenanigans. Commercial vendors only have a game to lose and OSS only has a game to win.

I still use both Windows and Linux, and would also use OSX if I had the spare cash. I found Linux on the desktop to be lacking when I first tried about 9 years ago, but continued to use it as a server. Now it has improved to the point where I've started using it on laptops and desktops. Did Linux suffer from me biding my time? No. Whereas a commercial company cannot last 10 years without paying customers, an OSS project can slowly mature without commercial pressures. Don't push, just wait and who knows where we'll be in another 10-20 years.

He has a point ....

Take Asus.

They invent the current netbook breed, have a 6 month (minimum) head start on the competition. But, critically, they didn't add much value to their original Linux customised offering.

And where are they now? One of the also-rans, fighting it out on hardware features, with a confusing line up of models, whether they run XP or Linux. That strikes me as a big opportunity missed.

Now, imagine if these machines had been branded and sold as Nokia-Google-Books; discounted in initial price, with the easy ability to add telco/streaming app/the whole monty. The public would have been seduced into buying into initial low price, and they would happily accept value added top-ups. It's something they are used to with mobiles. We would then be looking at a massive new branding phenomenon, and runaway success.

window wiper

@aL: I just got my "free" eee904HD from tmobile for signing up for another 24 months on my mobile broadband thingmie. I wiped Windows XP and put fedora linux on it - now it runs a lot faster and is now more like a little-laptop than a netbook. Of course, Fedora supports mobile broadband and the EEE with no configuration.

It would have been a much better customer experience if tmobile had put their own skinned fedora (or whichever distro) that had full branding, documentation, extras for tmobile 3G users etc etc - just like the phones do. Sure, some will reinstall but many will just use the distro as is.

I did click 'no' to the XP license - but it appears to do absolutely nothing - no information on where to revoke or claim back the XP license cost...

Paris, cos she wouldn't say no.

@ J

Most people (read that as ill informed, rampant consumers) are sheep who are easily led to the desired purchasing point by slick marketing techniques. True needs and truth be damned, if it's "new and improved" chances are it gets bought. Witness the enormous amount of money spent on marketing alone. You can get numerous college degrees in the subject ... it's pretty much, now, a branch of behavioral science! What gets bought is not always the best product, it's what the marketing boys can convince people what they need to buy. Do you remember the 1984 Apple ad with the pretty young girl throwing the hammer? If not, here it is:

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9126158

This is modern marketing at its very best and it made an awesome impression on untold thousands of consumers. And, it was all about an "also ran" computer company striking out at the big boy. This approach was a stroke of pure business genius.

Here's the point: the Linux world has no appropriate marketing scheme designed (and executed) to reach the masses which whatever truth needs to be told to sell the product. What "marketing" that is done is plain and truthful but that doesn't grab you ... marketing today has to be eye-catching. And therein sits the problem: Linux may be God's gift to the desktop computer world, but its the story is not getting out in any form that appeals to the everyday consumer. Linux will never be sold on it's technical merits out of the mouths of the nerdy techy boys who create and improve it.

Apple knew that and they got an attractive running woman in a tight top and short shorts to strike the blow. And look where Apple is today? Maybe not as big as Microsoft, but look at the fans and the loyalty. And all that was achieved with prices much higher than you might think would sell products. Until such time as the Linux world "gets it" and understands the true nature of the sales challenge they face, Linux will always be a distant follower to those that do "get it".

Sounds rubbish

So the netbook market should resemble the mobile phone market more than it does the traditional laptop market? That seems like the last thing people would want to buy into. People want consistency across their devices, not a load of proprietry/one-off stuff that skins the cat differently just for the sake of it. Every mobile is different, and for me, that resembles the early days of computers. The days before there were defacto standards. The mobile market is yet to find it's defacto standards (no common platform for the masses).

Why go back in time, and why this need to cripple PC hardware with overbranded naffness?

Selling a cheap laptop with locked-down, joe-public-friendly, feature-limited Linux OS on it is surely just a false economy when that same laptop is capable of running XP.