Here's how you know that the IT market is part of the global economy. IT is no longer immune to downturns, and when the economy gets the flu, IT does too. The box counters at Gartner this morning released their projections for PC shipments in 2009, and the late-season winter storm that was pounding the Northeast was in perfect …
Everybody's waiting until
Everybody's waiting until Windows 7 comes out? Right? Then they'll all rush out at once, 'cos if the Microsoft/Intel juggernaut says you gotta have it, it must be true. Right? So order now in advance, because it'll be first come first served when the rush starts.
Or maybe, just maybe, people and organisations are bored with constant upgrade cycles and horrible costs with no visible benefits. Whooops. Tough times ahead for Saint Bill and his followers.
It is early days for netbooks so they are in a growth phase that is outstripping the downturn. If there had not been a slump the netbook growth would have been bigger.
People a fed up with upgrade cycles
I think that a lot of people are fed up with desktop upgrade cycles. The average 3 to 4 year old PC running Windows XP is performing quite well for all the tasks the average user needs, so why spend a lot of money (not to mention getting the compatibility headaches) for a new PC. There are no desirable features in a new desktop.
The main appeal of Notebooks or Netbooks is that they add an element of mobility, and I think the sales are driven by peoples who just want to mobilize their computing experience. A lot go for Netbooks because they are quite happy with the performance of the Atom processor.
To recover the computing industry must move beyond the traditional windows / Intel PC, which is now pretty much a comodity (even if Microsoft is still selling it's OS at premium prices). The money is in Kindles, iPhones, Android, Arm powered Netbooks etc... Equipment that offers a really different computing experience. People who already have a traditional computer will probably keep it until it breaks from now on, so that market will get stagnant.
So is this because of Vista, or because the replacement is round the corner, or because everyone who has got a computer (mostly with XP) sees no good reason to replace it? I think I know...
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