Silicon Valley's punditocracy are quite exercised by the fact that Red Hat could soon be worth more than Sun in market capitalisation terms - the latter's market value is trending down while the former's is trending up. A chart (below) of January market capitalisation values shows this. At the moment Sun is capitalised at $2. …
A tie up coming soon !
Any bets ? How about Novell & Sun ?
The graph directly contradicts the text
"The latter's market value is trending down while the former's is trending up. A chart (below) of January market capitalisation values shows this."
Well no it doesn't.. they're *both* going down with a small jump at the end, with Sun increasing more than Redhat leading to a larger gap.
Plus that graph covers a very specific period - 3 weeks. I wonder what happens if you broaden it to a more realistic 6 months.
Earnings vs Revenues
> Sun revenues were $13.8bn in 2008 while Red Hat's were less than four per cent of this at $0.52bn
Well, Sun's turnover may have been $13bn but it's falling (at annuallised 7% quarter on quarter) and their profits were seriously negative (depending which measure you use). Meanwhile Red Hat is growing revenue and profitable (source for both: Yahoo Finance).
So of course JAVA is falling (down 20% over 3 months) while RHT is rising (up 20% over the last 3 months) - compared to NASDAQ down ~9%. Look at 6 months and RHT is down "only" 35% - comparable to NASDAQ index - while JAVA is down around 65%.
All shows investors are rational - they sell the poorly performing/value destroying and buy the better performing shares.
Someone remind me
What does Red Hat do again? A Linux reseller or something, yes?
RE: A tie up coming soon !
Oooh, is this the latest version of the long-running game "Guess who's gonna buy Sun"? Now the Sunshiners have lost FSC as the White Knight option, and their fantasizing over an Apple-Sun "merger of tech giants" has turned out to be a pipedream (note to Sunshiners - Jobs has an hormone imbalance, not a brain tumour), is Novell the new name to be undesireably linked to Sun?
Hmmmm, the acid test here would be what would Novell gain from this? Novell is a software company, why would they want to merge with a struggling hardware vendor with only one server line that actually runs the SLES product, and a whole raft of incompatible software? Novell wouldn't even benefit from the Sun customer base as that's mainly old SPARC Slowaris and just as likely to jump to another UNIX or Red Hat as port to SLES. Oh dear, I don't think the Sunshiners thought this idea through too well. If there is anything in Sun that is of interst to Novell (maybe some patents and some of the coders) then Novell will probably wait until Southern Asset Management kick off the fire-sale to get what they want cheap rather than being lumbered with the albatross that is the rest of Sun.
Unfortunately for the Sunshiners, this also seems to hold true with just about anyone else in the market - anyone who might have the cash doesn't seem to have a reason to want the pain that would go with it. Maybe Ponytail can find a rich Sheikh or Saudi Prince with enough oil-money and too little sense. After all, one was silly enough to buy Man City FC.....
In reply to 'The graph directly contradicts the text'
On June 30 2008 Sun's shares were $10.88 and the market capitalisation was $8.04bn. Red Hat shares were $20.69 and the marcap was $3.93bn. The coming together has been happening over many months and, at the moment, Red Hat has actually passed Sun in markcap value.
The comparison is poor
To say that Sun has not shown software revenue is not true. It was true in the past, but this last go round, they did show them. They also showed that they are growing much faster than Red Hats revenues and are more than double Red Hats revenues. Why would the market care about this though? The market cares about overall revenue, not the fact that one part of Sun is doing well.
It's the typical problem of a software company within a hardware company. Sun's much larger HW business is shrinking in actual dollars more than the software business is growing in actual dollars. The percentage growth in the SW business is actually much larger than the percentage shrink in HW.
Sun has a very healthy and profitable SW business, but the HW comparison is killing them.
@ Matt Bryant
Did Sun take your puppy away / reject you for a job or something?
All that your posts show (as much as you may deny it to yourself) is that you know how to spit venom, while "cleverly" changing product names in a repeated (and boring) fashion.
Yes, yes - you don't like Sun. WE GET IT.
If Sun does go away, will you finally put this sock away?
Make sure that you threaten to have my info hunted down in your follow up - we wouldn't want to keep the classy trend you started in another post to stop or anything.
Paris - because even her fights with former BFFs don't last this long.
"Make sure that you threaten to have my info hunted down in your follow up - we wouldn't want to keep the classy trend you started in another post to stop or anything."
Yeah, exactly :-D Matty is going to be tracking IP addresses and making personal phonecalls to each and every ISP with all the spare time he gets in his "real job" (lol) from using HP Openview and blah blah blah...
RE: @ Matt Bryant and @ AC
"Did Sun take your puppy away / reject you for a job or something?..." We've been over this before, what are you guys, goldfish? I have never applied for a job with Sun and, in its current state, I can't see a reason why anyone would. Mind you, the puppy-napping angle is new - is this a new Sun sales ploy, "Buy our servers and software or the puppy gets it!"? Rest assured, the family pooch is very alive.
"....Make sure that you threaten to have my info hunted down in your follow up - we wouldn't want to keep the classy trend you started in another post to stop or anything....." Actually, if I remember correctly, it was you Sunshiners that got all huffy and accused me of posting as Jonathan Schwartz, saying that Sun would sue me, etc, etc. I didn't threaten you with anything, I merely warned you to be careful with such insults as "retarded" as some sites expressly prohibit the mocking of the handicapped, and I wouldn't want the fun others would have laughing at your posts to be inhibited by you being banned from any forums. To be honest, I have no intention of tracking any of you Sunshiners down, in fact I would go out of my way to avoid ever meeting any of you! After all, why would I want to? You are all so obviously socially-lacking, it would probably rank as the second most boring episode of my life (first would still probably go to that Apple convention I once went to).
All I can say is that whilst your bitterness and paranoia are common amongst Sunshiners, maybe it's time you admitted to yourselves it is born out of fear. The crux upon which you have based your technical carreers is about to disappear, and you haven't a clue how to move on seeing as you have spent years developing an arrogant and autonomic rejection of any other option as a viable alternative technology.
But to get back to the point of the article, it is a fact that the market sees Red Hat as a software company with a viable future, and ranks it financially as more viable than the much larger and historically more important (or maybe that's self-important?) Sun. This is all the more amusing given Sun's history of fearing and then courting and then fearing Red Hat again, whilst hp and IBM both made the smarter plays of not trying to fight the Linux community but of engaging with them. You can sit there desperately holding yout Sunshiner Blindfolds™ to your eyes to avoid having to admit the truth, but it's till the fact of the matter. Enjoy!
And why is this in the hardware category? What hardware does RedHat sell???
Oh yes -- that is the whole point isn't it?
You just don't get it do you.
Would you care to remind us of the innovations that RedHat have brought to the market over the past 25 years? Aside from re-packaging a free operating system, what else do they actually *produce*?
RE: Neil Davis
Well, apart from the work they have put into Linux apps and developing a Linux support solution? But I see this is more Sunshiner arrogance - "Red Hat don't 'innovate' like we do!" What you don't get is that innovation is only a success when it makes money. Sun innovates but not products the market actually wants anymore. In the meantime, 90% of other companies that don't innovate but make me-too products or services go on making money. Which is smarter? Maybe you should ask the Sun employees being pink-slipped.
Red Hat Doing Well?
I see a graph that shows 2 poorly performing stocks. One is doing not quite as badly as the other. Wasn't there any real news to cover?
@ Neil Davis
"Would you care to remind us of the innovations that RedHat have brought to the market over the past 25 years? Aside from re-packaging a free operating system, what else do they actually *produce*?"
He's not going to, quite simply because he's clearly incapable of doing so. And, has demonstrated that to the amusement and dismay (lol) of El Reg's readership over, and over, and over again. Note how he spent a whole paragraph *not* answering your question, and simply added to the close to 900 words he's already spouted in this story alone :D
BTW Neil I'm still as in the dark as much as you are about what RH actually do.
Market Cap Madness
To put all this in perspective, as of the stock market close last Friday, January 23, General Motors' market cap was $2.13B with revenues of $166.1B vs. Sun's market cap of $2.73B with revenues of $13.65B.
So what does it all mean? If I knew, I'd be rich....
(Paris, because she knows just as much a the stock market analysts....)
RE: @ Neil Davis
"....Note how he spent a whole paragraph *not* answering your question..." Oh, I'm sorry, did I use too many long words for you? OK, I'll say it simply, just for you and the rest of the first-graders; the financial market believes Red Hat makes more money and will continue to make more money than Sun. That is the whole point of the article. You can moan and grate on about "innovation" and comparisons with GM (you're so desperate you're comparing yourself to the biggest carwreck in the automotive industry!?!?!), but the facts still remain the same - Sun is considered a bad investment by the people with the money, and that will directly impact on Sun's ability to raise funds, sell shares and - most importantly - will lead many customers to question whether buying their producst is a good idea.
On the innovation front, apart from the fact Red Hat have innovated profit, something Sun are having a real problem doing, I would just like to point out that Red Hat has carefully and successfully integrated Xen into RHEL, whereas as Sun have failed so far with Slowaris x86 and xVM, as outlined by The Reg; http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/16/sun_touts_virt_galaxies/. Try again, Sunshiners!
Schwartz must go...
Need anything more be said about the pony-tailed 40+ year old CEO? If SUN survives, any employees still left will refer to his tenure as the "reign of terror"
Anyone who believes that free software downloads is going to make your company profitable is having acid flashbacks to before the Internet bubble burst when companies were staking their valuations (and worse, their futures) on the number of page hits their website was receiving.
RE: Matt Bryant - Redhat & Xen
"...Red Hat has carefully and successfully integrated Xen into RHEL, whereas as Sun have failed so far with Slowaris x86 and xVM..."
What a great example, thank you !! And so did Novell and Oracle ..or pick any Linux distro...
What a pathetic failure would it be..., to not collect and package the bits and pieces together since all the work is already done by the Xen folks !! Wait a minute, does Redhat employ the Xen guys too ? Well, they did build a reasonably good management interface to manage the VMs - kudos to them.
Redhat is so happy with their achievement of bundling Xen package that they suddenly decided to embrace KVM instead and ditch Xen !!
Consider the contrary that Sun is actually making the entire paravirtualized solaris on their own with little help from the Xen folks. The Xen folks did all the work for Linux only, not solaris - but how would you know :-(
Did HP manage to port HP-UX on Itanic ? What a shame that they don't have a type-1 hypervisor for their high end boxes, may be you could convince your bosses at HP to invest in some real engineering and get a proper hypervisor on the Itanic - pity for them that they can't just lift the magical HP-UX port from some open-source project, was that too much effort considering the Xen guys already have a port of Xen hypervisor on the Itanic ? Or may be HP can just stop promoting Vmware ESX hypervisor and ask their customers to use Vmware server instead - after all it would resonate perfectly with their hypervisor strategy on the Itanic gears.
"To be honest, I have no intention of tracking any of you Sunshiners down, in fact I would go out of my way to avoid ever meeting any of you!"
Seriously, does anyone have any further doubt or need any more proof as to how old this guy is? :)
RE: RE: Matt Bryant - Redhat & Xen, and Twatt Bryant
RE: RE: Matt Bryant - Redhat & Xen
"....Redhat is so happy with their achievement of bundling Xen package that they suddenly decided to embrace KVM instead and ditch Xen !!..." Actually, that had more to do with Citrix buying VMware, which meant Red Hat could no longer be assured of equal access to code or updates should Citrix get cuddly with another vendor, and because they decided KVM would give them both a competitive edge and a unique offering.
"....Did HP manage to port HP-UX on Itanic ?...." Erm, yes, a long time ago. Do you actually know anything about hp-ux?
"....What a shame that they don't have a type-1 hypervisor for their high end boxes,..." Hmmm, lets see now - they had software (vpars) and hardware (npars) partitioning for PA-RISC long before Sun had either on Slowaris, and then they got hardware partitions and Integrity Virtual Machines out and working for Itanium before Sun had anything like it for Slowaris. I think you need to go back and do a little research.
"....pity for them that they can't just lift the magical HP-UX port from some open-source project, was that too much effort considering the Xen guys already have a port of Xen hypervisor on the Itanic ?...." Well, considering they didn't need it for Itanium as Integrity Vritual Machines already did what VMware ESX or Xen do there wasn't the need. However, you can load Red Hat onto an Integrity server and fire up Xen if you want, it is fully supported and works (unlike xVM).
RE: Twatt Bryant
"....Seriously, does anyone have any further doubt or need any more proof as to how old this guy is?...." I suppose the fact I can use words of more than one syllable does probably put me at an older age group than you and your fellow playground buddies. The funny bit is I have embraced new technologies whilst you still cling blindly to the dinosaur of modern computing. In the parlance of the playground - suck on that, doofus - pwned!
What have Red Hat done?
To answer a fair question "what have Red Hat done"? The answer is they have taken a student's project which built a Unix-like operating system, and further developed it into a robust, feature-rich operating system which has eclipsed all other Unix-like OSs in features, ease of use, brand recognition, and popularity on servers. Red Hat make money by selling formal support for a branded Linux distribution based upon this work.
About half of the work flowing into Linux comes from Red Hat, and this has been so from the beginning of Red Hat. Jon Corbet of Linux Weekly News regularly publishes articles about what came from whom in the most recent release of the Linux kernel.
If you are looking for technical triumphs, then I'd nominate SELinux (which Red Hat did not invent, but for which Red Hat paid the most expensive part -- the writing of the security rules) and which Red Hat had the balls to deploy.
I do disagree with the article about the transparency of Red Hat's revenues. These revenues are mainly for support, and there is precious little information or examination of this support. For a start: how many customers, at what discount, and how happy are they? How much does Red Hat's strong brand and innovation tie users of the operating system to Red Hat's support?
I vote for Sun to die
I want Sun to die, just so Matt can go back under his rock.
HP-UX is doomed anyway so why care
To be honest, OpenSolaris is the way to go. Look at the features it has already, they're pretty damn nice! And when did it all start? And what will happen to Solaris? Right, it will inherit the features!!!
I think that will give sun a serious chance back in the business workstation arena. Sun and OSS will embrace and extend .... Made me consider getting a new sun for @home.
OpenOffice/StarOffice will sit on MS Office in 5 years, you'll see it come!
RE: HP-UX is doomed anyway so why care
Simple - the high-end is where the major deals are struck, those deals are margin-rich and loaded with support options and services that mean the actual sale can be two or more times the value of the hardware. That hihg-end is still dominated by commercial UNIX and probably will still be for a few years to come, so being top dog in hihg-end UNIX means being the dog with the biggest profits. That is why hp-ux is not doomed, because it still makes hp enough money for them to invest in its development and make a profit.
"....To be honest, OpenSolaris is the way to go...." Which is why it is being ignored by the community and by the commercial market. Face it, CentOS is more popular. How few downloads has Sun turned into support contracts? A pittance. OpenSolaris is just another drain on Sun's dwindling resources in a vain attempt to defeat Linux.
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