Forget the traditional indicators
When the variables change then the indicators lose their meaning.
November sales down but Black Friday sales up. Anyone surprised? I'm not. When times are tight, people will look for better bargains. People held back their purchasing until Black Friday to get a better deal. This sucks for retailers. Their small gains on lower margin sales will not compensate for larger drop on bigger margin sales.
Same deal for Cyber Monday. People will spend when they think they can get good value and won't spend at other times.