If you want to know who is going to win the US presidential elections today (or to be precise, in the early hours of tomorrow morning), a quick look at the bookmakers' odds might be more informative than the latest polls. Depending on which polling organisation you believe, Obama’s lead is narrowing to as little as four per cent …
I'll split my winnings with you 50/50
Shouldn't the title be:
"Don't bother to place your bets on the next US President"
There are better returns to be had on your savings - e.g. in an Icelandic bank
Where's Osama Bin Laden's message?
In 2004, Osama Bin Laden did a message along the lines of 'if you vote for President Bush your genitals will shrivel'. Knowing full well it would cause every American to vote for President Bush. I was expecting the same in 2008 for McCain, but no message? What happened?
""We are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy. Allah willing, and nothing is too great for Allah," bin Laden said in the transcript."
Bin Laden didn't do squat to the US economy. They printed money till their bond market collapsed, then printed some more, till the M3 numbers had to be hidden, then printed some more until the banks started collapsing, and they're currently printing some more for Paulson's bailout plan, not even a fiscal stimulus package that one, it's just to prop up the banks and companies till a change of power can happen.
Bush did that, every year while he was in power, eveb before 911 and before Bin Laden did his claim. He's just taking credit for it.
So I'd kind of expect Bin Laden to do a message along the lines of 'if you vote for McCain your banks will shrivel to the size of small olives blah blah blah...". So where's the message? Or did he only do those for Bush's benefit?
Bin Laden ? Don't make me laugh.
Osama is nothing but a puppet, a strawman, that the US government hauls out every now and then to keep public opinion focussed on fear and not on what is going on.
Did they catch him ? Does anyone really think for one minute that the US military is going to take over seven years to hunt down one guy on this planet without actually finding him ?
I seriously doubt it.
Ergo, the US military did not get the requisite orders to actually catch the bugger. Either that or the US doesn't need to catch him because Osama is, at this very moment, watching CNN from a cushy hotel room/spy pad/whatnot, which he leaves only for the recording room/Afghan cave set next door.
Oohh, I'm in conspiracy-land now.
king of the hill peggy
please please check out the king of the hill cartoon from the makers of beavis and butthead, it's her sarah palin/peggy, jesus h! we should be told.
Paddy Power paid out last month
From: Paddy Power
Subject: Paddy Power Customer Service - Obama Payout!
Well, after John McCain failed to land any punches worthy of the name during last night's debate, we've decided to pay out on Barack Obama as next President of the United States.
We figured it was only a matter of time - and punters might as well get their winnings now rather than wait three weeks for a result that is pretty inevitable. So if you were wondering what that money in your account was, now you know!
The team at Paddy Power
betfair is better
http://predicts.betfair.com/ is better, the odds are not set by betfair but by the the bettors in the market themselves, so any numbers are pure market force with no betfair profit margin skewing the result.
Betting on public outcome driven results always seemed a bit counter-intuitive to me. It's (and we're taking a dive into the gutters here) the same as Big Brother, except BB is probably not as fixed as a US election.
Do a massive country-wide poll, place a huge wager on the outcome. Or in the BB case, put the eviction line on re-dial (an office fax machine is quite good for this...) and put a honkingly large wager on the outcome, enough to cover the expenditure.
I hAve LarGE buSINess invessstment OPPoorTUnity, pleaase seend me your accouNT Dtails
Odds on VP taking over the job?
I would have thought with the current tickets, the odds on the VP having to assume the mantle of Pres should be quite high. I wonder what odds Paddy Power would give on that??
Intrade / IEM
There's also straight prediction markets like InTrade and IEM which are both predicting an Obama win.