Smartphones running Linux look set to become far more commonplace within the next five years, market watcher ABI Research has forecast. The firm’s VP, Stuart Carlaw, reckons that Linux will feature on 23 per cent of smartphones by 2013. He added that that share of the market will put the open source operating system in second …
Where do they get this stuff from?
How can this bloke possibly predict this five years hence? What's he going to do if Apple's 3G iPhone suddenly becomes the most popular phone of all time? Nobody predicted how popular the iPod was going to be in 2002, did they?
What a bunch of b.s.
A big bunch of b.s. based on wind entirely.
As good as those fantastic predictions on Linux overtaking the desktop years ago, Open Office overtaking MS Office, web services overtaking the world, java destroying c++, web 2.0 being a technical and economical paradigm shift.
I wonder who pay those 'experts' for all this b.s.
I spy an angry fearful Apple fanboi
Top five most wanted smartphones, as shown to the right of this very textbox in what I'm typing: WM6, WM6, WM6, WM6, Palm. Yeah, Linux is taking right off on smartphones.
Who knows what will happen, android vs whatever Microsoft slap together (I believe MinWin with Silverlight banged on top), oh MacOS will be the spit bucket of these two competitors. Should be interesting no matter what, if Google get their head out of their arse then maybe all these devices will talk to each other and the world will be a better place.
Who pays them?
Well that's a good question, we know who pays the experts who predict Windows domination, but who pays for the positive linux forecasts? .... .... Could it actually be that their results haven't been bought by any interested parties, or would that shake your world just a little too much?
Healthy scepticism is a good thing but it's quite different from blinkered heckling. Consider the following: Two new linux based smart phone solutions are in development, Limo and Android, one backed by the marketing dollars and influence of Google. Handset manufacturers have queued up to announce their support of linux. The potential cost breaks of linux on mobiles is extremely appealing to manufacturers.
Acer, yes a PC manufacturer, has just announced their intention to put linux on more laptops for cost and performance reasons. What has this to do with mobiles? Well the same cost and performance applies there too, they are actually pretty closely related, small portable devices which seek to minimise power consumption while offering platform which the manufacturer can customise to a high degree, with lower (zero) licensing costs.
Anyone can develop software for linux based handsets without SDK costs and this too appeals to manufacturers since it relives them of the obligation to produce applications in house. A greater abundance of free or low cost software is a definite selling point for a handset.
No-one is predicting that linux will dominate the smartphone market in five years, just that it will outsell Windows Mobile which isn't that hard an achievement since WM has such a small market share anyway.
One last point, though linux won't come to dominate any market overnight, you can't argue that it hasn't gained significant ground in the last five years. The number of users of linux has risen exponentially on all platforms from desktops, servers and routers to mobiles, fridges, set-top boxes and media centres. Desktop linux is so easy that grandparents around the world are using it. It's increasingly being deployed in schools and offices as a replacement for Windows. You'll get no argument from me that it's difficult for long term Windows techies to adjust to something unfamiliar, but linux on the desktop has already arrived.
i think what we need to bear in mind is the list of members the LiMo foundation has. check out the list here: http://www.limofoundation.org/current-members/index.php and tell me you don't see some promising involvement.
worth remembering that the mobile companies would love to be rid of those pesky license fees for the OS on their gear.
Remember that those are current models. In 2 years, they will be considered rather obsolete... In 5 they will probably not even be working anymore.
While I agree the prediction is a bit random, it's not impossible, nor unlikely. Most users won't know or care what OS it is anyway. And piles of people who currently own/use Windows Mobile are already pissed off by it daily... I suspect once Android powered devices show up there'll be plenty of people looking to buy that way.
It would be nice
I can see linux increasing because of the cost advantages and the fact you can do what you want with it. Killing of M$ as a competitor? only vista and windows 7 can do that. What they do in the market place will define what windows mobile will do and so if windows mobile 7 becomes a vista clone then we could see linux kick off.
In five years the way things are going we probably won't have mobiles as we know them anyway. The UMPC has taken off in the last five years, the pocket PC died off in the last five years and the smartphone became common. So in five years anythign can happen with what we use.