Marc Andreessen predicts a future where systems companies like Sun Microsystems see their volume businesses shrink and massive online services providers become prime customers. Andreessen, who helped launch the internet revolution through his work at Netscape Communications and on the Mosaic browser, said developers will flock …
Developers don't choose platform
"Reflecting on his days growing up, Andreessen said he could never have got started if he'd worried about which middleware, operating systems or server to pick."
Yeah, and I'd bet he'd have problems if he had to chose between two toilet stalls.
The last time I looked, I didn't get to choose the platform where I did my development. That was chosen for me by my employer. If it makes business sense, then business will go for the on-demand services. Otherwise I guess they will pass. In a way they are doing it now, which is what a hosting provider like Akamai does.
Cloud OS spin
This song is being played to death (I'm sure amanfrommars would agree);
I'm still waiting to hear about how great that new "cloud" security architecture is going to be (presumably from the same people who brought us "Web 2.0 - client-side validation vulnerability bonanza").
Everybody says this. Everybody who works at a web-based startup, that is. But I don't buy it.
For companies with more than 50 or 100 staff, the cost of in-house development is competitive with the per-seat cost of tools like salesforce.com. And you have full control of customization. And if something breaks, you have staff to fix it. Go with the big web based app, and have a problem, and you are less than nothing to their revenue stream, so you just wait and wait and wait for them to fix your issue.
Now, maybe in the bright future of personal hovercars and cities in the clouds (that'd be Web 2.0) these companies will bring the per-seat pricing down to a level where in-house development can't compete. But right now, they're priced as an alternative, not as an obvious, how-could-you-choose-otherwise decision.
Same thing with the "the network is the computer" folks. When a computer and monitor is only a couple hundred bucks, and good apps are free, why would I want to pay $20/mo for slow net-based apps and still have to buy the computer to access them. Turns out I don't do a whole bunch of weather forecasting or graphics rendering, so what would I do with 10,000 processors?
Why rent the cow, when you already own it? Jeez.
We live in a world where people are arguing over which document format to use.
When we get out of early 1990's 'computing theory' - data hiding in documents that no-one ever reads - and get into using computers to manage business then we will have an idea how much impact this will have.
None I would imagine.
Remote Web Apps != Local Apps
``why would I want to pay $20/mo for slow net-based apps and still have to buy the computer to access them. ''
Quite so. There's still a case, for routine office work, for thin clients off Citrix servers. The management is easier, and it's like being able to fly on a plane which keeps its engines in the hangar with a couple of spares: we run our remote offices like this, because it means all the servers and backup are in our data centre, not in portakabins on building sites. But the raw cost case is getting harder to make without issues like dirt and dust.
I chose my development platform
My choice was governed by what I thought would be best for finding work. Basically, what was listed in the requirements at jobserve. So, whilst actually paying for everything, it was never my choice really, it was dictated by others.
Andreesen is just trying to talk himself into another job after losing Netscape.
Most businesses want control over their systems, which just does not happen with third party suppliers. They want someone to answer the phone and DEAL with a problem, not advise to upgrade to the next release. When systems fail, they want then fixed NOW, not in a few hours or days.
Can I have a pint of what he was drinking, please ?
And I quote ...
Back in the early '90's, a new graduate developer on my team responded to the news that he was going to be working on a new platform, thus: "If I'd wanted to work on a platform, I'd have joined British Rail."
"Andreesen is just trying to talk himself into another job after losing Netscape."
After Netscape, he started LoudCloud, which became Opsware, which HP bought last year for $1,600,000,000
He's OK for a job...