
A graveyard.
Myspace, facebook, et al, are dying. Not because of corporate involvement, not because of adverts, but because of the basic principle of signal to noise.
To wit: The model which social networking sites rely on to sell advertisements is the principle that the users will generate enough content to entertain themselves, as well as draw in new users. However, the people who generate most of the (and I'm being kind) 'content' on these sites are, well, losers and phonies. People who don't have a bunch of friends, anyway.
At this point, the signal to noise imbalance is becoming exponentially greater: If you put a million monkeys on a million typewriters, maybe one of them will have something to say, but are you going to sift through the other 999,999 manuscripts to find it?
Among my own social circles, there were (usually nonintellectual, even 'dumb') a number of adopters of these particular technologies. It was a fad. It's going away faster and faster. For academic purposes, do a myspace search for your own region and age group. See the "last logged in" dates? Most of them show less than one or two logins per month, which is way, way down compared to the height of the fad last year.
I'll compare the illusion of the popularity of social networking sites to an already invalidated corporate technology: Groupware. What MS-Exchange has done for office productivity, MySpace would like to do to our private lives. Where both technologies veer madly off the rails, though, is that they attempt to force human communication into a quantifiable database structure. Databases are great for finance and inventory, but are terrible things for communication. Just think of using shared calendars in Exchange, those of you in the audience unlucky enough to have that bit of sadism forced upon you.
Bold prediction: Within six months, the user demographics of Facebook, Myspace, and their derivative buddies will be comprised of the following---
40% -- Porno spam bots, inviting anyone who's ticked the "male" checkbox to check out their naughty webcams.
45% -- "Free gift card" spam bots, inviting all the users to please install the new version of the storm worm.
4% -- Teenagers trying to get laid
1% -- Users who might actually buy something from a banner ad.
Good luck to them, the morons!