Two bald men fighting over a comb
Whoever is ahead, the sales figures for both formats are dismal. It must be sinking in at Toshiba, Sony and Microsoft that *neither* format is making an indent on the DVD market, and nor will they if the current situation continues.
I'm amazed by the appalling quality of the titles being offered on HD (especially here in the UK). There are almost no 'must-have' movies, and no sign of HD being released ahead of DVD - exclusivity does drive people to adopt new formats. Right now, DVD releases come before HD - if people want the movie are they really going to wait and wait and wait for it to turn up - and then in the wrong format?
At the moment, having seen both, I think HD-DVD is *SLIGHTLY* better. It feels more finished - the menuing, options and interactivity I've seen is a lot better than those on corresponding BluRay titles. Image quality and sound are indistinguishable between the two in newer releases (no matter what the spec says) But perhaps the deciding factor is that the current HD-DVDs come without region coding; BluRay is being region coded - and the regions are different to those on DVD.
Whether HD-DVD can beat the Sony PS3 juggernaut is another thing. Until Sony produce some games for the PS3, BluRay's all many people are going to use it for - ahhhhhh - perhaps *that's* the reason for the games famine on PS3.